Cumulative level test: Philosophy of science: explanation and causal inference

Check understanding, separately from reading

10 questions · 80% to pass · no timer. This longer test revisits both units in the level. These authored questions assess recognition and application of the taught distinctions, not professional qualification. You may review the lessons and retry. Repeat attempts reuse the question bank; a remembered answer is not proof of transfer to a new situation.

Saving a lesson records reading only. Previous lesson completions have not been converted into passing scores. You can continue reading without a pass; the assessment remains unpassed.

Question 1

An instrument behaved consistently in all past trials. “It will behave consistently because it always has” is a useful inductive expectation, but not a non-circular proof that induction must work. A prediction supported by controlled trials may remain better than a guess while still falling short of deductive certainty.

Question 2

“This mechanism always produces a visible signal under specified conditions” excludes a no-signal result in those conditions. “Whatever happens reflects the mechanism’s hidden intention” excludes nothing unless intention independently constrains outcomes. The first can fail; that exposure is a strength of the test, not proof it passes.

Question 3

A theory predicts a signal if the detector works and the sample is prepared correctly. No signal may implicate the theory, detector, or preparation. An independently calibrated detector and replicated preparation reduce the alternatives. Rechecking auxiliaries is legitimate when tests can expose their failure independently.

Question 4

Two models fit the recorded motion of a system but disagree outside the measured range. Repeating the same narrow observations may add precision without separating them. Measuring in a feasible region of divergent prediction would be more discriminating, provided the instruments remain trustworthy there.

Question 5

A model invoking an unseen mechanism predicts new observations. A realist may treat that success as evidence the mechanism approximately exists as described. A cautious empiricist may accept the model’s observable consequences while withholding belief about the unobservable mechanism. Neither need deny the observed predictive success.

Question 6

A falling barometer can predict a storm, but smashing the barometer does not prevent it. Atmospheric conditions account for both the reading and weather change. The reading is an indicator rather than the storm-producing mechanism. A good predictor can therefore be a poor intervention target.

Question 7

Hot weather increases both ice-cream sales and swimming, while greater swimming exposure can increase drowning incidents. Ice-cream sales and incidents may therefore rise together without ice cream causing drowning. The common weather-related pathway supplies an alternative to the direct-cause story.

Question 8

Volunteers are randomly assigned to two teaching methods. The assignment improves the comparison among volunteers. It does not make volunteers a random sample of all learners. If one method drives more struggling learners to drop out, comparing only final completers can introduce selection problems despite the initial randomization.

Question 9

Imagine a program admits applicants for exceptional research or exceptional performance. Among admitted students, someone with weaker research must often have stronger performance to qualify. A negative association can emerge within admissions even if the traits are independent in the applicant population. Admission is the common effect selected on.

Question 10

A researcher plans to test one outcome, finds little support, then discovers a striking subgroup pattern while exploring many divisions. The subgroup result may be worth investigating, but presenting it as the sole prior prediction hides the selection process. Reporting it as exploratory and testing it independently makes the reasoning inspectable.

Continuing does not mark this assessment passed.